An Exponential Growth Model Analysis of Agricultural Commodity Exports Status in Karnataka

Abstract

Agriculture plays an important role in the economic development of Karnataka by providing employment, raw materials, food security and export earnings. Karnataka has a diversified agricultural base consisting of cereals, pulses, oilseeds, fruits, vegetables, coffee, spices, sugar and various processed agricultural products. The state has also emerged as an important exporter of coffee, spices, cereals, fruits, vegetables and processed food products. The study has two major objectives: (1) to examine the performance and growth of agricultural commodity exports in Karnataka, and (2) to analyse the growth trends of major agricultural commodities and their exports in the state. The value of agricultural commodity exports increased from about USD 1,299.84 million in 2019–20 to USD 2,457.02 million in 2024–25 as per the Economic Survey of Karnataka (2025).

The estimated exponential growth rate indicates positive long-term growth, although considerable year-to-year fluctuations are observed. Coffee, tea, mate and spices constitute an important component of Karnataka's agricultural exports. The results indicate that agricultural commodity exports recorded an estimated positive annual growth rate of 8.61%, with a positive exponential regression coefficient (B = 0.0826), indicating an overall upward trend. The coefficient of determination (R² = 0.330) shows that approximately 33.0% of the variation in agricultural commodity exports is explained by the time trend. The correlation coefficient (r = 0.575) indicates a moderate positive relationship between time and agricultural commodity exports. The export value increased from US$1,299.84 million in 2019–20 to US$2,457.02 million in 2024–25, although considerable year-to-year fluctuations were observed. The findings demonstrate that Karnataka has experienced positive long-term growth in agricultural commodity exports, supported by the increasing contribution of major commodities such as coffee, spices, cereals, fruits, nuts, and processed agricultural products. The study concludes that strengthening export infrastructure, improving value addition, enhancing quality standards, and diversifying international markets could further improve Karnataka’s agricultural export performance.